What Key Variables are Involved in Taking on Chinese Communist Party Leadership?
The Ghosts of Tiananmen Emerge
Mark Godges 高勉正
School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University
Geneva-Tsinghua Institute for the Sustainable Development Goals
Submitted/Presented on 10.30.2020 to IAPSS Asia Conference
Abstract
Many transnational democracy movements throughout history have been successful to a point, but have fallen short of their biggest prizes, as powerful regimes ultimately cling to power through violence and repression, as seen in the Democracy waves of 1989 and the Arab spring. In the Democracy wave movement of 1989 for example, the USSR fell apart, Mongolia became a strong democracy, and Apartheid fell in South Africa. Despite these massive feats there was one thing that could not be broken; the strength of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, where the Tiananmen Square protests were not able to influence the central government the same way their neighbors to the north were, establishing Democracy in Mongolia. This thesis will examine if new methods of domestic international movement building developed since the last democracy wave will impact increasing struggles for global democracy. Specifically, this thesis will use the summarized literature to examine whether these new methods change international power dynamics in Asia regarding democracy and justice, and the impact of the United States in being able to support or weaken these movements for Democracy in Asia.
Keywords
Milk Tea Alliance, East Asian Democracy, US-China Relationship, Cold War Evolution, Movement Politics
Introduction
Over the past few years, over several continents, the world is experiencing both a generational shift and a trend favoring democracy among young people, while an older traditionalist generation clings to political power in a rapidly changing world. In the past democratic wave of 1989–1991, the movement had many successes but fell short at Tiananmen Square. However, it also represented a relatively recent historical example where a major superpower resembling the presence and power of modern day China, the Soviet Union, was brought down through a global coalition and forced collaboration and amiability from Gorbachev through the projection of American strength and assertion to come to the table rather than Presidential neglect of major foreign policy items. This being said, historically democratic movements have hit a breaking point once they reach a certain point, and American leadership has usually played a role in abandoning it or overcoming the challenge. Whereas the Reagan/Bush team projected a strength that forced the USSR to cooperate, in both the cases of Syria with President Obama refusing to follow through with his “red line” and in the case of Hong Kong, with President Trump cowering to his masters in Beijing like a dog, the US played a pivotal role in abandoning Democratic movements and allowing them to fail in overcoming their final and greatest obstacles. I am particularly interested in exploring the implications of the research question “What Key Variables are Involved in Taking on Chinese Communist Party Leadership?” where I hypothesize based on successes and failures both in the current Democratic wave and in the Democratic wave of the Reagan/Bush era, what is needed in order to see Democracy fully prosper in East and Southeast Asia, especially if that means taking on Chairman Xi. From observation of historical patterns literature and analysis of patterns, I hypothesize that both successful domestic and regional organizing of solidarity and US-Allied support in all major forms will be necessary — but if available — will lead to an inevitable and indisputable victory.
Literature review
1. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414005276666
Summary:
In this piece Brinks and Coppedge explore through statistical analysis the impact of neighboring states on democratic regime change relative to other factors such as economic change or pressure from powerful non-neighboring countries. The ultimate finding was that countries increasingly behave more like their democratic neighbors if they are surrounded by democracies. Ultimately the stated purpose of research is that typically democratic regime change studies engage in studying domestic indicators or great power competition, but rarely factor in neighboring nations’ behavior in domestic attitudes and behavioral trends. From their analysis they conclude that overall neighboring nations have at least as strong of an impact on democratic trends as large regional or global hegemonies. This literature supports the hypothesis that when regional trends among nations are supported by global trends by democratic (or authoritarian) superpowers, that attitudes will shift in the respective direction that both regional and world powers are invested in.
2. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03068374.2019.1672397
Summary:
In this piece Purbrick reports in an unbiased fashion the events which had occurred regarding causes and outcomes of protests in Hong Kong starting with the initial submission of the extradition bill to the Legislative Council, to at the time of writing September, the victories achieved in getting the extradition bill delayed and eventually withdrawn as an outcome of massive pressure from the populous. At the time of my writing, despite successful domestic lobbying efforts by the populous towards the Hong Kong government, in June of 2020 the movement was squashed by authorities in Beijing who oversee the Chief Executive. This sequence of events supports the hypothesis that even when domestic or regional lobbying efforts are successful, without another major world power with equal standing to counter a superpower like the Soviet Union or the People’s Republic of China in 2020, local democratic movements facing goliath will have little standing. If the hypothesis of my thesis remains consistent and is verified, then the dynamics of a Biden Administration not siding with the Xi-Putin-Kim axis will change the dynamic and hope for those on the ground in facing a power unseen before in human history.
3. https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publication/two-thailands-clashing-political-orders-and-entrenched-polarization
Summary:
Dr. Sombatpoonsiri asserts that the root sources of Thai civil conflict in this article which primarily result from the polarization of a struggle between traditionalism and progressive democracy, which is largely divided by generation. The article expands to describe how those on the traditionalist side view the Thai monarch as the rightful enforcer of government, while those who are calling for radical reform believe that the people should rule. The recent intensifying and expansion of Thai protests have put this article written in August in a new light. Protestors, mainly younger protestors, are calling for a dissolution of parliament due to the increased dictatorial tendencies and crackdown of dissent from an opposition party that once framed itself as fighting against the establishment. The case of to be determined the results of the protestors demands of ending state sanctioned brutality, dissolving parliament, and replacing the current regime-friendly constitution will be a good test to the hypothesis given the American election occurring 4 days from the time this essay submission is due.
4. https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/10046
Summary:
In this article Phoborisut analyzes the changing nature and effects of digital connectivity on protests and democratic movement building in the 21st century. In observing and analyzing the case of how the arrest of Joshua Wong, a democracy activist from Hong Kong, by Thai authorities, had further energized the Thai democratic movement, Phoborisut hypothesizes that because the young people of the world are now so digitally connected, news that would otherwise disempower and deflate movements, because so many people can be reached at once, can now reinvigorate them. This is evidenced in parallel situations in places like the United States, where because people of all classes, ethnicities, and backgrounds and professions were engaged in the protests against police brutality, particularly towards African Americans, it then became nearly impossible for the Trump Administration to contain. However, in the case of the evolving action-based solidarity of the Milk-Tea Alliance, Phoborisut seeks to understand if this will operate on an increasingly transnational level in the age of heavily globalized mass media. If true, then this supports the hypothesis of democratic movements gaining momentum through skillful collaboration, with success depending on the dependent variable of global super-power backing.
5. https://stanleycenter.org/publications/pab/pab05china.pdf
Summary:
In this Policy Brief Dr. Ross argues that increased American strength through engaging with our alliances and projecting willingness to impose our military will would change the dynamic in the Indo-Pacific region regarding the momentum of the People’s Republic of China and its proxy nations. In order to make this argument he utilizes the policy decisions in regards to the later stages of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and positions both the United States as well as a China-Russia unit as actors that have never disengaged from the Cold War but rather changed positionalities, to the point where a rising China has now taken the place of the USSR. He argues that the United States has greater leverage in this relationship due to the geographic advantage of the maritime capabilities and multiple regional allies of the United States, a lopsided power dynamic which did not exist in Europe while engaging with the USSR. This supports the hypothesis that while there was significant negotiations with Gorbachev and others at the end of that period of the Cold War, much like at the end of World War II with both Mao and Stalin, the world is at a precipice to where if the United States is able to regain its alliances less negotiation will be necessary. This also supports the hypothesis that the ability of the United States to “Bend the Arc of the Moral Universe” to a global system built on peace, justice, and fundamental social and economic rights, also hinges on the domestic actions of the United States to preserve Democracy at home and elect Vice President Biden as the 46th President of the United States.
(Model construction) and Theoretical Framework
The theoretical framework used to analyze research points and conclude to future research recommendations is that in 1989 there were two major variables: one independent variable and one dependent variable. The independent variable relies on the strength of the democracy movement in their internal methods domestically and with regional coalitions in movement building. The dependent variable depends on the major Democratic power on earth, the United States, which balances the power dynamic to counter China and Russia. In 1989–1991 although both President Reagan and Vice President and then President George HW Bush successfully disintegrated the USSR, recent history has proven that they were not able to contain Russia’s regional political influence or the danger that it posed to interests of the United States. So, although many domestic democracy movements throughout Eurasia were able to capitalize on the independent variable, the strength of their movements, which was fully in their control, they were not able to control the dependent variable of successful international authoritarian deterrence led by the United States. Today, in the case of the Milk Tea Alliance between Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand, despite documented successes of the movement, from a realist perspective it will ultimately be impossible to face the power of both China (and potentially Russia) without the diplomatic, economic, and military clout of the United States. This is especially true when comparing the military threat posed by the Soviet Union in the 1980’s to the liberal-democratic world and emerging Democratic movements in Eastern Europe and Germany to Taiwan, which is a free nation who like the community of West Berlin, will ultimately no longer tolerate being bullied. Therefore, the dependent variable is important and can either cancel out or enhance the independent variables of successes because a strong and respected United States will give the Milk Tea Alliance the international standing it needs to emerge victorious against a monstrous tyranny.
For this reason, coming to a concluding recommendation, I break my problem analysis down into two major portions: Independent Variable Analysis on factors and indicators of successes in domestic and regional democratic movements, and Dependent Variable Analysis on factors and indicators of successes or failures of the policies of the American-led Liberal-Democratic Alliance that will either enhance or weaken the standing of these regional movements.
Conceptualization and Operationalization
The implicit and foundational theory of the thesis question “What Key Variables are Involved in Taking on Chinese Communist Party Leadership?” is that historically, underdog Democratic movements can only win when combining skillful domestic and regional coalition building with global Democratic military power, of which the most obvious example and subject of foundational analysis is the Democracy wave of 1989–1991. Therefore in order for the Democratic movement to win in Asia, the organizational tactics that are powered by a younger, more diverse, and more progressive generation not only have to succeed in quickly creating domestic political dynamics and climates that are favorable to their cause, but also by engaging with Allies such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan that will reduce positive incentive or create negative incentive for current national leadership to suppress Democracy at home.
The hypothesis that is formed by this theory (and that will not be able to be fully researched until after the due date of this essay) is that should President Trump be re-elected, Democracy will die along with our hopes for a better world, no matter how skilled the organizing tactics are that fledgling Democratic movements in Asia employ. The flipside of this hypothesis, is that if Vice President Biden and Senator Kamala Harris win the Presidential election with their Administration being sworn in on January 20th, and should the Milk Tea Alliance continue to gain domestic and regional legitimacy through demonstrating the ability of organizing to disrupt traditional power, then the Democratic movement will have an edge in Asia and around the world.
Much like President George HW Bush was able to build and complete President Reagan’s legacy by overseeing the global Democratic transition in many states from when he was sworn in until 1991, a Biden Administration would have a similar and opposite effect of delegitimizing a current administration built on the withdrawal and retreat from global Democratic norms. For this reason, the implied sequence of events if a Biden Administration should take power is added momentum to the global Democratic movement, including in Asia, sparked by a democratic uptick in the United States, and then increased support and mutual trust of allies, large and small once that occurs. The independent variables of this scenario are that Democratic movements worldwide continue to gain momentum and concrete victories and the dependent variable is that enough people vote in the United States to provide a referendum that repudiates Donald Trump and trump-ism worldwide.
Verification or falsification of the claims of this theory will not be clearly seen until late January and February of 2021, however they may begin to be seen in the beginning of the new solar calendar year (on January 4th, a day after the new Senate is sworn in). Verification of the theory would be the hypothesis proving itself to unfold, whereas falsification would be the key indicators of global democratic momentum occurring but unsuccessfully denting the momentum of authoritarianism in Asia and worldwide, to where the variables would not see their causal results from the hypothesis based on historical observations from the most recent global democratic wave.
Methodology
My chosen method of research is historical analysis, where I use each data source from the literature chosen to analyze trends in transnational democratic movement building or Democratic suppression and the impacts of the independent variables of strength of organizing skills and dependent variables of strength of American or allied support.
The strengths of this research method is that with historical patterns that repeat themselves in different ways, it is reliable to understand impacts that have already occurred as then it is more so recognizing a repeating pattern of behavior or sociology and diagnosing solutions rather than conjuring up logic from thin air. In regards to the ebbs and flows of the Cold War and how it has transitioned over the past 30 years from the Soviet Union to a rapidly industrializing and modernized China — history tends to be especially reliable as multiple similar patterns in multiple eras in multiple regions exist to analyze behaviors of competing great powers in multipolar global competitions of the past. As described in my data points, successful movements which have overturned powerful regimes have had compelling messages but also the military, economic and diplomatic clout of a stronger ally behind them, and in regards to an equal power, it involves a series of allies, such was the case in breaking down the USSR economically or Nazi Germany militarily.
The weaknesses of historical analysis methods, however, is that despite consistent accuracy in diagnosing patterns, they fail to encapsulate the human impact of policy decisions and therefore gives readers or listeners a sense of levity or casualness to questions of war and peace or Democracy and dictatorship. When discussing topics such as this using research methods to answer questions that rely on policy patterns, it means the research is not grounded in nuanced narratives from people who experienced these changes, whereas research methods that involved both interviewing and surveying specific populations of people regarding historical topics usually provides an accurate picture of the visceral impact that geopolitics have on human lives.
On the other hand, it is also for this reason that the advantages of using historical analysis as a primary or as the only research method tend to be more reliable, as personal or cultural bias from those who are engaged in specific and complex conflicts have less influence over the narrative of research, if one’s research analysis encapsulates more than one region and time period and has a greater emphasis on general human political behavior.
Data and Review of Data Points from Literature
In “Diffusion Is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy”, Brinks and Coppedge begin with quoting how “Kant (1963) suggested 225 years ago that some of the causes of democ- racy lie beyond a country’s borders, and Rustow (1970) and Whitehead (1986) echoed this argument. Yet the first large-N studies of democratization focused exclusively on domestic factors, ignoring the possible influence of neighboring states on regime change. The notion that countries are self- contained units, isolated from external forces, was challenged again in Huntingon’s (1991) The Third Wave.” This data is relevant because it represents a continuing pattern of transnational Democratic waves in human history, which have simply magnified in their influence due to additional societal variables in 1989 and the present. Since the Allied Western Front of France, Britain and the United States won against the Axis powers in 1945, there has been a steady growth of Democratic influence. On the flipside, because approximately half of allied power came from authoritarian regimes that modeled the Axis form of governance, they have not stopped their march either. In both aspects, the neighbor theory continues to prove itself, as they explain that “We find strong support for a pattern of diffusion in which countries tend to become more like their immediate geographic neighbors over time. We further find that countries within the U.S. sphere of influence during the third wave improved their democratic performance relative to their peers and that global trends have a strong impact on regime change.” When looking at the theory that assumes influence of neighboring countries on Democratic or antidemocratic trends, Brinks and Coppedge fail to mention the influence of regimes which have not yet Democratized and where Democracy waves are more challenging. Despite later mentioning the lack of a major difference between the power or lack thereof in neighbors Democratic influence, there is still no clear explanation regarding the inevitable pushback from undemocratic regimes, and why some Democracy waves fall short where they do.
In “A Report of the 2019 Hong Kong Protests”, Purbrick analyzes the beginning of how Hong Kong’s protests reached tangible victories but fell short of taking on Goliath because of a raw imbalance in power dynamic. “On Wednesday 12 June, a protest started early, around 7.00am, in Admiralty outside the Central Government Offices and Legislative Council, where the Bill was to be tabled for a second reading. To enable Legislative Council members and staff to attend the reading, a large force of Police with anti-riot equipment were deployed around the building. However, by 8.00am the entire government and legislative complex was surrounded by the growing number of protesters. Later in the morning it was announced by Legislative Council officials that the reading of the Bill would be delayed to a later date, practically because no legislators or staff were able to enter the government complex as it was surrounded by protesters.” However, this data combined with the data on the passage of the National Security Law in Beijing in June of 2020, and the lackluster response from weak American leadership on the world stage, sets up what would either prove or disprove the hypothesis of this piece. If concessions are made to the demands of the people in other proxy regimes to Beijing in East or Southeast Asia, once it gets to the level of dealing with Beijing directly, would a different outcome occur when the United States has chosen an administration not containing the weak and cowardly elements that the Trump administration embodies?
In “2 Thailands; Clashing Political orders and Entrenched Polarization”, Dr. Sombatpoonsiri examines not only the roots of Thai struggle for Democracy but also provides clues as to how dependent or independent variables will interact with each other depending on both the strategic skills of Thai organizers and the outcome and implications of the U.S. Presidential Election. She analyzes that “The crux of polarization in Thailand is a sharp division between two worldviews that seek incompatible political orders. The royal nationalist worldview regards the Thai king as the country’s legitimate ruler; the competing Democratic outlook contends that sovereignty resides with the Thai people. This clash can be traced back to Thailand’s unfinished regime transition of 1932, but tensions have intensified dramatically over the past fifteen years, as the warring camps have weaponized tit-for-tat protests and politicized supposedly independent institutions.” This piece of data is crucial to analyzing the spread of Democracy in transnational contexts which neighbors influence neighbors, because it describes common variables of the people’s discontent and indicators for revolution. In this way, because common struggles for Democracy, science, feminism, and the abolition of slavery are common points of generational disconnect across nations, movements can then spread in uncontainable ways that are perceived as dangerous to the established elites.
In this way, in “Contesting Big Brother: Joshua Wong, Protests, and the Student Network of Resistance in Thailand” Phoborisut argues that the contagion of movements has only exacerbated with social media. He explains that “Zeynep Tufecki (2017) argues that “attention is oxygen for movements. Without it, they cannot catch fire” (p. 30). To contest Big Brother, student activists seek attention in the space of networked communication that the authority uses for mass surveillance. They took advantage of the networked communication’s characteristic of reaching a large number of people at great speed to disseminate the news about Wong’s arrest.” When looking at the independent variable of skilled organizing, this is relevant to the point that if domestic or regional movements do not gain tangible wins, then large global Democratic powers find it harder to lend steady and committed countermeasures to their oppressors.
An example of the US successfully pressuring a superpower of near equal force to cave to the demands of a Democratic movement occurred during the last wave, and is described by Dr. Ross in “A Realist Policy for Managing US-China Competition”, saying “Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, American strategic attention shifted from balancing Soviet power in Europe to balancing Chinese power in East Asia. This effort in part included a redeployment of US Cold War capabilities from Europe to East Asia. Since then, US naval presence in the region has grown. In addition to the Kitty Hawk, recent defense budgets allocate funding for increased US carrier presence in East Asia. The United States has also obtained greater access to naval facilities in the region. The completion in March 2001 of Singapore’s Change port facility and Tokyo’s recent agreement to allow the United States to base a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in Japan are important elements in this process.” This has critical relevance in and serves as the base of my hypothesis because it serves as an example of where successful regional Democratic movements and strong, focused and committed American leadership were able to bend the will of the world’s leading undemocratic regime.
Analysis and Findings
This data ultimately shows three things: That the Milk Tea Alliance has been successful so far, that its shortcomings came as a result of failed American leadership, and that a Biden Administration can use the actions of the Reagan/Bush Team in the late 80’s and early 90’s to model their approach to the current ranking members of the ruling party of the People’s Republic of China. I hypothesize that based on the recent half successes of the Milk Tea alliance in asserting its autonomy upon the autocratic East Asian spiderweb: specifically in the case of Hong Kong successfully pressuring withdrawal of the extradition bill, and based on the success of the Reagan/Bush Team in establishing “peace through strength” in dissolving the Soviet Union and bringing down the Berlin Wall, and successfully ushering in a wave of successful Democracies in Eastern Europe, that should Thailand or any other people’s movement coming up against the gatekeepers of autocratic traditions in Asia succeed to a degree where they need the United States to finish the job, their success — and the world’s success — will depend on a Biden Administration both winning the Electoral College in the United States and keeping their promises from the campaign trail.
Model Construction and Conclusions
Model Construction
The foundational conclusion based on the relationship between independent and dependent variables is that:
1. If the independent variable (of domestic and regional organizing achieving self-created goals) is unsuccessful then the mission will fail before the United States has a chance to support.
2. If the independent variable (of domestic and regional organizing achieving self-created goals) is successful but the dependent variable of strong American global leadership fails, then domestic and regional Democratic movements will only reach a certain threshold before failing.
3. Assuming that all remaining variables from the last Democratic wave which occurred under the administrations of President Ronald Reagan and President George H.W. Bush occur, and no new variables which can threaten success have emerged, then: If If the independent variable (of domestic and regional organizing achieving self-created goals) is successful and the dependent variable of strong American global leadership accompanies it, then the Milk Tea Alliance for Democracy in Asia will continue to gain momentum and strength until ultimate victory, which largely depends on the November 3rd General Election in the United States.
Conclusions
The hypothesis is currently being tested as historical events are playing out both in the United States and in Asia and therefore Conclusions will be fully drawn in February or March.
Future research
Future research will regard the relationship of independent or dependent variables in succeeding or failing in the development and success or failure of the Milk Tea Alliance which will largely depend on the major factors of the US Presidential Election result, the willingness of well-known American Allies to build a Multinational Liberation Front, and the simultaneous continuous measurable achievements of the Democracy movement in Thailand and throughout Asia.
Bibliography/References:
Brinks, Daniel, and Michael Coppedge (2006): pp. 464–466. Sage Publications. Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414005276666
Lloyd, John (2014). Financial Times. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/5e852474-0831-11e4-9afc-00144feab7de
McManus, Doyle (2019). Los Angeles Times. Available at: https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-17/column-trumps-silence-on-pro-democracy-protests-in-hong-kong-is-offensive
Phoborisut, Penchan (2019): pp. 3270–3278. International Journal of Communication, University of Southern California Annenberg School of Communication. Available at: https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/10046
Purbrick, Martin (2019): pp. 465–487. Asian Affairs. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03068374.2019.1672397
Ross, Robert (2005): pp. 1–12. Stanley Foundation. Available at: https://stanleycenter.org/publications/pab/pab05china.pdf
Sombatpoonsiri, Janjira (2020). Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at: https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publication/two-thailands-clashing-political-orders-and-entrenched-polarization
Talbott, Strobe (2004). Brookings Institution. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reagan-and-gorbachev-shutting-the-cold-war-down/
